The FBM tool makes it easy to predict how upcoming matches will unfold. If we use the most recent starting XI we get the following. As soon as the actual starting XI we’ll update our FBM tool to see what the prediction is based on the actual lineup.

The most important numbers are:

1. PSV will dominate 43% of the match and Basel 8%.
2. PSV will have 12% of the chances and Basel 88%.
3. The most likely outcome is 1-3, but this happens only 9% of the time.

This is the raw data. So the second step is to interpret these numbers. The first thing to notice is that while PSV has the most domination, Basel has the most chances. That means that the chance of a draw is increased. 

The second thing to notice is that although PSV has the most domination, for 49% of the time no team has any domination. This often reflects chaotic periods where no team is able to dominate or control the ball for long. If the no domination percentage is higher than the domination percentage of either team, then more often than not, the team with the highest percentage in chances will disappoint.

For that reason our FBM tool predicts the following (the text is computer generated):

Most likely winner: PSV 1
PSV 1 wins 66% of the time based on 35 matches.
FC Basel 1 wins 34% of the time based on 35 matches.
Most likely outcome: 1 – 3 (happens 9% of the time) 
This result is based on pattern Brown: Both teams are only able to dominate small parts of the game and there is the risk that the underdog becomes overconfident in which case the favorite has a bigger than average chance of winning. (Brown 5)

Most valuable players

With our FBM tool one can look of course at all players of both teams, but for this match preparation we will only look at the most valuable players of PSV and Basel. The idea is that if you are able to neutralize these players, you increase your chance to win a lot.

For PSV the most valuable player is Donyell Malen as can be seen from his most recent FBM contribution chart:

As can be seen Malen is contributing a lot to PSV’s attack (yellow), defense (red) and overall play (blue). Transitioning (green) improved, but against an easier opponent than Basel, so we don’t expect Malen to contribute in that regard that much in this match.

For Basel the most valuable player is Jahlil Okafor as can be seen from his most recent FBM contribution chart:

Okafor has a very similar FBM contribution chart as Malen. The differences are a slightly lesser defensive contribution (red), but a considerable higher transitioning contribution (green).

Weakest defender

While the most valuable player is the number one target to neutralize, the weakest defender is the best area of defense to target for the attack.

For PSV the weakest defender is Luckassen. So attacking through the center is most likely to result in a goal for Basel.

For Basel the weakest defender is Widmer. So for PSV attacking Basel’s right flank would give the best chance to score.

We’ll update this article as soon as the actual starting XI are known.

Update with actual lineup:

PSV comes up with a very surprising starting XI and formation. A 3-5-2 formation according to the UEFA (displayed in our tool as a 5-3-2 formation as that is what happens most of the time when the wings are really wing backs, but in this case the wings are really wingers):

This new formation is good and bad news for PSV both at the same time. The good news is that both domination and chances have increased. Also due that Basel is not playing in their strongest formation according to our data as Basel is not starting with Okafor.

The bad news is that with this formation Basel is probably going to risk less and defend more. It has become unlikely that Basel becomes overconfident. That this means for PSV is that PSV now actually lesss chance to win and the most likely outcome is a draw. There is also less risk for PSV to lose the match. So in that sense, even though the new formation is quite innovative, it is still playing on safe. The same goes for Basel, but then by using a conservative approach to the match.

So the new numbers look like this:

1. PSV will dominate 77% of the match and Basel 11%.
2. PSV will have 20% of the chances and Basel 80%.
3. The most likely outcome is 1-2, but this happens only 9% of the time.

And the computer generated description of the match reads as follows:

Most likely outcome: draw
PSV 1 wins 42% of the time based on 155 matches.
FC Basel 1 wins 28% of the time based on 155 matches.
Most likely outcome: 1 – 2 (happens 9% of the time) 
This result is based on pattern White: The favorite dominates most of the game, but the underdog has most of the chances (mostly through countering), so more than average it becomes a draw. (White 4)

Post match update

Although PSV won with a 3-2 result, the match unfolded pretty much as we predicted. Orginially we thought that PSV would win 66% of these kind of games. With the actual lineup we brought this percentage down to 42%. A big difference with the 67% win chance that the sports betting industry thought it would be. Given that Basel was leading 1-2 5 minutes before the end of the match, we think that 67% – although ultimately correct – was estimating PSV too strongly.

Our final estimation of a draw also turned out to be wrong, but very reasonable. A 1-2 result would be too much for Basel, but PSV was also very lucky in the dying moments of the match. So a draw was the most reasonable estimate before the match.

The weakest defenders were also correctly predicted with both defenders (Luckassen and Widmer) failing to prevent the opening goals. Looking at Widmer’s FBM contribution chart one can see that his performance in the match was the same as what we expected before the match:

Basel did have a lot less chances than we predicted, although we correctly predicted the number of goals Basel scored. PSV had a bit more chancees than expected, but scored a lot more than we predicted. So all players will be updated with their performance in this match and the match that the teams play the coming week. Then we will create a new prediction for the return.