Yesterday, we already showed the high correlation between FBM team score and the league ranking (80%) without using any team statistics like team wins, team goals scored etc. Today, we show you an even higher correlation (88%) between FBM team score and team value according to TransferMarkt.
Again, this would be nothing to brag about if we used team statistics to calculate our FBM team score. But we don’t. We only use the stats of indivdual players in starting XI. These stats are:
- Player Overall Contribution
- Player Attacking Contribution
- Player Defending Contribution
- Player Transitioning Contribution
- Player Reliability
This looks like this for Tadic (Ajax)
| Score | Overall | Attacking | Defending | Transitioning | ||
| Beste match | 9.47 | 95.03% | 97.95% | 97.70% | 98.59% | |
| Median match | 6.82 | 99.98% | 99.45% | 7.14% | 99.85% | |
| Worst match | 1.12 | 1.69% | 4.12% | 37.56% | 14.05% | |
| Most recent match | 8.90 | 99.99% | 99.99% | 97.60% | 99.61% |
Based on these stats of individual players we calculate an average FBM team score as can be seen in the table below:
| Team | Average FBM score | TransferMarkt |
| Ajax | 219.53 | 419 |
| PSV | 179.8 | 203 |
| AZ | 149.59 | 58 |
| Willem II | 130.29 | 20 |
| Feyenoord | 127.75 | 92 |
| Heerenveen | 125.09 | 31 |
| Utrecht | 123.83 | 41 |
| VVV | 122.24 | 15 |
| Vitesse | 121.93 | 36 |
| Fortuna | 110.56 | 19 |
| Groningen | 109.53 | 29 |
| Heracles | 102.13 | 21 |
| PEC Zwolle | 99.17 | 21 |
| Excelsior | 92.41 | 14 |
| ADO | 90.54 | 19 |
| Graafschap | 86.06 | 10 |
| NAC | 82.3 | 14 |
| Emmen | 81.2 | 12 |
This gives a 88% correlation between average FBM team score and the value of the squad. More importanly, because the average FBM score is based on the stats of individual players, there is a direct link between our unique FBM individual player stats and the value of a player. We already know this because we have our own model to calculate player values. And now we have a very strong correlation that is the foundation for our valuations.